耕地非农化与区域经济增长的因果关系和耦合协调性分析——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究  

Analysis on Coupling Degree and Causality between Farmlands Conversion and Regional Economic Growth——Based on China Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：许恒周[1,2] 金晶[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院 [2]天津大学公共资源管理研究中心,天津300072 [3]南京审计学院政治与行政学院,南京210029

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2011年第3期64-72,126,共9页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJC630164);中国博士后科学基金项目(20090461126)

摘　　要：利用中国1998—2008年的省际面板数据,采用面板协整方法和耦合协调发展模型,对耕地非农化和经济增长的因果关系及耦合协调态势进行了实证研究,结果表明:在短期内,我国31个省份耕地非农化和经济增长之间存在双向因果关系;但在长期内,由于各地区经济、资源差异,各省份的经济增长和耕地非农化呈现出不同的因果关系。在二者耦合协调发展方面,从总体上看,都从1998年左右的中度失调状态逐步过渡到勉强协调的状态,各区域之间又存在差距。因此,要根据各区域实际情况,实行适度从紧的耕地非农化政策;优化耕地保护调控指标的分配结构;因地制宜地调整产业结构,转变经济增长方式,从而减少经济增长对耕地资源的盲目依赖,促进耕地资源与经济增长的协调。Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1998 to 2008,using panel co-integration method and coupling degree model,this paper presents an empirical study on the long-term equilibrium relationship between farmlands conversion and economic growth and their situation of coupling coordination degree.The results show that there is bilateral causality between farmlands conversion and economic growth in short-term in 31 provinces of china;but in long-term,because of the differences in local economy and resources,there are different causality relationships between farmlands conversion and economic growth in each China 31 provinces.In the respect of coupling coordination,the state gradually transits from moderate disorder to reluctant coordination overall,and in each province there exists differences too.In order to protect farmlands,and improve coordination between farmlands and economic growth,this paper suggests some possible policy strategies which include implementing moderate stringent policy of farmlands conversion,optimizing the distribution structure of controlling index of farmlands protection,adjusting industrial structure to take actions that suit local circumstances,and changing the style of economic growth.

关 键 词：耕地非农化 经济增长 协整分析 耦合协调度 面板数据 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]