中国单沟泥石流危险度评价模型比较研究  

The Comparison of Single Debris Flow Risk Assessment Models in China

作　　者：张怀珍[1,2] 范建容[1] 郭芬芬[1,2] 刘飞[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2011年第4期20-26,31,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-5-2);国家科技支撑计划课题(2009BAK56B05)

摘　　要：我国自20世纪80年代开始泥石流危险度研究,泥石流危险度研究不断深入;单沟泥石流危险度评价模型从最初的分级评分模式发展到函数赋值;单沟泥石流危险度评价的基本原理和技术方法已初步成型并在实践应用中逐步完善与改进。首先将我国不同时期的单沟泥石流危险度评价研究中出现的模型体分为3种类型:分级评分模型,分级赋值模型和函数赋值模型;结合云南省37条典型泥石流沟的基础数据,对这3种模型的危险度评价结果进行比较分析。结果表明:在评价因子参数个数不同及存在不确定性的情况下,3种模型的危险度评价结果的相似度指数仍大于0.91;并进一步对其原因进行了初步分析。Since 1980,researchers of China have begun to study the risk of landslides and debris flow hazard.Single debris flow hazard assessment model has become function assignment from grading;and the basic principles and techniques have been initially formed and gradually improved in practical application and improvement.This paper firstly divides single flow risk assessment models appearing in different periods into three types;hierarchical scoring models,classification assignment assignment model and function assignment model;using 37 typical debris flows＇s basic data in Yunnan;compares these risk assessment results.The results show that the number of parameters in the evaluation of factors and uncertainties in different circumstances,three risk assessment results of the model similarity index are still greater than 0.91,and try to explain the reasons.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险度 评价模型 不确定性 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]