河南省复种指数时序变化及预测  

Temporal Variation and Prediction of Multiple Cropping Index in He'nan Province

作　　者：张志国[1] 李琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院环境与规划系,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2011年第4期241-243,253,共4页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：河南省政府决策研究招标课题(2011B589);河南省教育厅自然科学研究项目(2011B210029)

摘　　要：复种是集约利用土地资源,保证区域粮食生产的重要措施之一。利用常规统计方法和Mann-Kendall检验分析了1978-2009年河南省耕地复种指数时序变化特征,在此基础上,利用灰色理论,建立了河南省耕地复种指数预测的GM(1,1)模型,预测了2010-2019年河南省耕地复种指数值。结果表明:1978-2009年河南省耕地复种指数总体呈增长趋势,1985-2010年增长趋势明显;2010-2019年河南省耕地复种指数仍将保持增长趋势,且增速有加快的趋势。河南省土地资源有限,后备土地资源缺乏,复种指数的持续增长虽然为河南省的农业发展和粮食安全做出了一定的贡献,但由此带来的土地资源退化的风险也会增加。Multiple cropping is one of the important measures of intensive land use and food security in regional agricultural production.Based on the analysis of the temporal variation of multiple cropping index in He＇nan Province during 1978-2009,the paper predicts the changes of multiple cropping index during 2010-2019 using the GM（1,1） model.The results showed that：the multiple cropping index increased gradually during 1978-2009,and the trend was more significant since 1985;the prediction results showed that in the next decade（2010-2019）,the multiple cropping index will also increase in He＇nan Province.Although multiple cropping could be important in agricultural development and food security,it is noteworthy that the risk of land degradation would increase.

关 键 词：时序变化 MANN-KENDALL 灰色理论 预测 河南省 复种指数 

分 类 号：S344.3[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]