投入产出局部闭乘数的内涵  

The Implication of Semi-closed Input-output Multiplier

作　　者：张红霞[1] 刘起运[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2011年第8期80-85,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"人口;教育与经济协调发展的多部门动态模型研究"(70903071);国家社科基金重大项目"我国经济结构战略性调整和增长方式转变"(06&ZD010)资助

摘　　要：宫泽乘数与局部闭模型乘数是目前利用投入产出技术结构化凯恩斯乘数的两种常用方法。如何恰当选择和使用这两种方法对于分析实际问题非常重要,要求明确其经济内涵和差异。有大量文献研究宫泽乘数的经济内涵,而局部闭乘数虽然应用广泛,但对其经济内涵的研究较少。本文通过与宫泽乘数的对比,对投入产出局部闭模型乘数的性质进行了辨析,主要结论有:(1)局部闭投入产出乘数的构建中考虑了各部门收入分配特点的差异,或者说各部门收入分配的差异对乘数效应的影响隐含在局部闭乘数中;(2)当假定各部门初始收入分配不存在差异时,投入产出局部闭乘数与宫泽乘数完全相同。这些结论明确了两类凯恩斯乘数结构化方法的差异,为恰当选择和使用这两种方法进行政策分析提供了理论依据。Miyazawa multiplier and semi-closed multiplier are two mainly used methods in structuring Keynesian multiplier by input-output technique.How to choose a suitable one from the two methods is vital for economic problems analysis.It requires studying their economic implications and differences.The economic implication of Miyazawa multiplier is discovered deeply by many works,while few are done for semiclosed multiplier,although it is used extensively.This paper investigates the implication of semi-closed input-output multiplier and the differences between the two methods.The main conclusions are：（1） semi-closed multiplier takes the industrial differences of primary income distribution into consideration,or the effects of primary income distributions of different sectors are implied in the model;（2） under the assumption that there exists no difference in industrial primary distributions,the semi-closed multiplier is equivalent to Miyazawa multiplier.These conclusions specify the differences of the two methods for structuring Keynesian multiplier,and the theoretic bases of policy analysis by structuring Keynesian multiplier with input-output model.

关 键 词：凯恩斯乘数 投入产出技术 局部闭乘数 宫泽乘数 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]