栎树林分因子与栗山天牛危害程度的风险分析  

Oak Stand Description Factors and Risk Assessment of Harm Extent of Massicus raddei(Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)

作　　者：唐艳龙[1] 姜静[1] 杨忠岐[1] 王小艺[1] 孙光翼 吕军 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所；国家林业局森林保护学重点实验室,北京100091 [2]吉林省磐石市取柴河林场,吉林磐石132303 [3]辽宁宽甸县森林病虫害防治站,辽宁宽甸118200

出　　处：《林业科学研究》2011年第4期476-480,共5页Forest Research

基　　金：国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD08A12);科技部公益研究项目(2004DIB4J166)

摘　　要：研究了13个与栗山天牛危害程度有关的林分因子,并对这些林分因子与栗山天牛危害林地有虫株率进行逐步回归分析,从中筛选出林地坡位、栎树胸径和主林层郁闭度3个关键因子。结果表明:栗山天牛危害林地有虫株率(y)与坡位(x1)和胸径(x6)呈显著正相关关系,与主林层郁闭度(x4)呈显著负相关关系,依此建立多元回归模型:y=0.071 2+0.691 8x1-0.507 4x4+0.561 3x6,经检验,平均差异程度为0.174 2。因此,可用该模型对栗山天牛危害程度进行风险评估。Thirteen stand description factors affecting the harm extent of Massicus raddei was studied,and by stepwise regression analysis,three key factors,slope position,DBH and crown density,were selected.The results showed that there was a significant negative correlation between the crown density and the ratio of infected oaks,and a significant positive correlation existed between the other two key factors and the ratio of infected oaks.Using these three key factors,a multiple regression model was established for risk analysis of the harm extent of Massicus raddei.The average difference degree was 0.174 2,so the model is suitable for risk assessment of the harm extent of the pest.

关 键 词：栎属 栗山天牛 林分因子 风险评估 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]