评后金融危机时期中国对外直接投资的逆势增长——成因探析与趋势预测  

Review on Recent Contrary Increase of China's FDI Outflow in Global Financial Crisis:Reasons Analysis and Trend Forecast

作　　者：马光明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2011年第9期48-56,共9页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家留学基金委"建设高水平大学公派留学项目"基金(批准号[2010]3006);2010年国家社科基金重大项目<加快推进对外经济发展方式转变研究>(10zd&017);子课题<中国对外货物贸易发展战略研究>基金(负责人:魏浩)的支持

摘　　要：金融危机导致近期世界对外直接投资总体呈现明显下滑趋势,然而数据显示中国近期对外直接投资流量出现大幅增长。其逆势上升的原因可能包括我国对外直接投资主要区位受危机影响较小、人民币升值与外汇储备缩水带来的动力与压力、2008年7月至2009年7月国际能源价格的相对低位、贸易保护主义的蔓延等。鉴于世界经济从危机中逐渐恢复以及中国政府与企业扩大直接投资动机的持续性,近年内中国对外直接投资可能迎来更大的增长,但其产业与区位分布的发展方向应得到充分重视。The world OFDI took on a down-going tendency in the financial crisis. However China＇ s OFDI flows had presented a contrary increasing trend. The reasons could be the comparatively small influence on the main objective destination, the initiative and pressure resulted by RMB＇ s recent appreciation and foreign exchange reserve＇ s increase, the recent comparative decrease on the global energy prices from 2008.7-2009.7, the increase of the trade protectionism and so on. It is estimated that China＇ s OFDI may come to a new high due to the world economy＇ s recovery and the constancy of the facts that support China ＇ s OFDI by both of the government and companies, etc. However, much more emphasis on the OFDI＇ s industries and location structure rationalization should be laid in the future.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 金融危机 贸易保护 流动性 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]