基于噪声甄别模型的我国FDI福利效应的差异性分析——来自1997-2009年的数据证据  

FDI Screening and Its Welfare Effects in China

作　　者：刘渝琳[1] 林永强[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学贸易与行政学院 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2011年第9期106-117,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(项目批准号:71073179):"防范"贫困化增长":后危机时代FDI评价与优化机制研究"的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：运用含有噪声的甄别博弈模型,分析得出东道国在引资过程中需要结合自身情况和其他引资国的政策制定符合本国福利增进的引资分割点,且东道国引资优惠额度越大反而越有可能损害本国福利。在此基础上结合我国1997-2009年引进FDI数据进行实证分析得出:(1)整体FDI对我国福利效应的增加带来了积极作用,但FDI对收入福利指数的贡献较小,对生产福利指数贡献较大;(2)自2005年开始,制造行业FDI对我国福利增加的贡献率趋于减小且有恶化趋势;而处于农、林、牧、渔业和信息传输、计算机服务和软件行业的FDI对我国福利的贡献率却逐渐增加;(3)处于后危机时代的FDI在引资政策上更应该重视产业导向以提升FDI的正向福利效应。A noisy screening model is used to analyze FDI policy in this pa- per, and it finds that host country of FDI should make a cutoff point which fixed with the consideration of the circumstance of host country and other host countries＇ policy about FDI. And the fact that the more preference to FDI the more possibility of worsening domestic welfare is also found. Finally, the paper gives an empirical outcome using the pool data from 1997 to 2009 in China and finds that： （1） the total FDI in China has positive effects on domestic welfare, and the total FDI has a smaller effect on income welfare, while a larger effect on product welfare; （2） from 2005, the FDI in manufacturing has a downtrend contribution on welfare in China and the FDI in the first industry and tertiary industry has an uptrend contribution; （3） Host country of FDI should pay more attention to industry-oriented FDI in post-crisis era, so as to promote positive welfare effects of FDI.

关 键 词：噪声甄别模型 FDI 福利效应 差异性分析 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]