基于区间不确定性水资源复杂系统的协调演化研究  

Study on coordination evolvement of complex water resources system with interval uncertainty

作　　者：韩雁[1] 黄跃飞[1] 王光谦[1] 王丽珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《水利学报》2011年第8期892-898,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究规划项目(973)(2005CB724202);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20090460358);科技部水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701008)

摘　　要：水资源系统是具有不确定性的复杂系统。本文通过分析水资源系统的复杂性与不确定性,构建了基于区间不确定条件下的水资源复杂系统协调演化分析方法。在利用主成分分析法得到子系统综合发展水平的基础上,采用系统的协调性指数模型来揭示系统间的相互关系,然后根据系统的信息熵得到其协调有序度,以此来反映水资源复杂系统的演化规律。以大连市为例的应用研究表明,基于区间不确定性的水资源复杂系统协调演化,能够客观真实地揭示水资源复杂系统的演化区间及其发展趋势,对于实现区域水资源和社会经济的可持续发展具有重要指导意义。Water resources system is a kind of complex system with great uncertainties. In this paper, a methodology for analyzing coordination degree of complex and uncertainty characteristics of water resources system is proposed. Based on interval uncertainty, a comprehensive development level of each subsystem in a water resources system with interval parameters could be obtained by using the Principal Component Analysis method. Then the mutual relationships between subsystems are obtained by using coordination exponent method. Finally, the order degree is determined by using information entropy to reveal the coordinated evolvement of complex water resources system. Such method has been applied to Dalian City and the resuits indicate that the coordinated evolvement of water resources system under uncertainty could objectively and factually reflect the evolutional interval and trend of a complex water resources system, which is important to decision-making for sustainable development of water resources and socio-economy.

关 键 词：协调演化 区间不确定性 可持续发展 水资源复杂系统 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]