JC法在梯级水库防洪安全风险分析中的应用  

Application of JC Method on Risk Analysis of Flood Control Safety of Cascade Reservoir

作　　者：原文林[1] 黄强[2] 席秋义[3] 王义民[2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450002 [2]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [3]陕西电力科学研究院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《人民黄河》2011年第8期14-16,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679053);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20100471007)

摘　　要：为解决一定防洪标准下梯级水库下游洪水的最不利地区组成中的水量分配和防洪安全问题,提出了利用JC法进行梯级水库洪水地区组成洪量分配及风险分析,并以黄河上游承担兰州市防洪功能的刘家峡、龙羊峡两水库进行了实例计算。结果表明:典型年法与JC法计算的兰州站最大瞬时流量分别为8 591 m3/s和7 690 m3/s,兰州站百年一遇的天然洪峰流量8 110 m3/s大于7 690 m3/s,JC法计算的兰州断面洪水设计风险为0.302%,故认为JC法计算成果属于安全设计。In order to solve water allocation and flood control issues of the composition of the most disadvantageous flood areas of the downstream cascade reservoir downstream under certain flood control standards,the paper describes the JC method to solve the composition of magnanimity allocation and risk analysis for cascade reservoir flood areas and calculate based on the Liujiaxia reservoir and Longyangxia reservoir,which bears the flood control function of Lanzhou on the upstream of Yellow River.The results show that the maximum instantaneous flow of Lanzhou station calculated by the typical method and JC method are 8 591 m3/s and 7 690 m3/s respectively.Lanzhou natural peak flow of once in one hundred years is 8 110 m3/s,which is greater than 7 690 m3/s.The Lanzhou section flood risk of the design calculated by JC method is 0.302%,so that the calculated results by the JC method belong to the safety design.

关 键 词：洪水地区组成 JC法 梯级水库 黄河上游 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]