水文系统不确定性分析方法及应用研究进展  

Progress in the Research and Application of Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Hydrological System

作　　者：王育礼[1] 王烜[1] 杨志峰[1] 谭雅懿[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2011年第9期1167-1172,共6页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC18B01)

摘　　要：水文系统是一个复杂的系统,包含了很多不确定性因素,增加了精确模拟和预测水文过程的困难。为了提高计算结果的可靠性,水文系统的不确定性分析已成为当前研究的热点。本文对水文系统不确定性分析方法及应用研究进展进行了分类综述,介绍了它们的数学原理、操作程序和应用现状,并对值得进一步研究的问题进行了展望,指出加强水文过程机理研究、在水文循环过程更多环节上拓宽不确定性研究、以及将多种不确定性分析方法进行综合是未来的研究趋势。Hydrological system is a complex system with many uncertain factors. These factors are not conductive to the accurate simulation and prediction of hydrological processes. Thus more and more people focus on the uncertainty analysis methods for the hydrological systems to improve the reliability of calculations. In this paper, we summarized the researches and the applications of the uncertainty analysis methods for hydrological systems. Based on the review, we introduced their mathematical principles, operational procedures and status of applications. Furthermore, the key tasks in the future were put forward, including uncertainty analysis of the mechanism of hydrological circulation and hydrological processes in combination of various methods.

关 键 词：水文系统 不确定性分析 方法 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]