中国农业水资源政策一般均衡模拟分析  

A Simulation Analysis of the General Equilibrium in China' s Policy about the Resources of the Agricultural Water

作　　者：王克强[1] 李国军[1] 刘红梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院 [2]上海师范大学商学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2011年第9期81-92,188,共12页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(04CZZ015);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目;上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(09YS177);上海财经大学"国家;地方重大战略问题研究项目";上海市曙光学者项目和青年学者项目资助

摘　　要：本文基于LHR可计算一般均衡模型,利用编制的中国2007年涉农社会核算矩阵,对中国农业水资源政策调整进行模拟分析。实证结果表明:在中国现实情况下,本文所列出的农业水资源政策的调整都能起到节约水资源的效果,并且对国民经济的冲击较小;供给管理(水量)政策依然是现阶段控制水资源需求最有力的手段;相比于水价政策,科技创新政策的弹性更大;农业虚拟水贸易组合政策可以作为真实农业水组合政策的补充,并与之共同发挥调节农业水资源供求的作用。文章最后给出了政策启示。Based on LHR computable general equilibrium model, using China' s agriculture-related social accounting matrix for the year of 2007, we have made a simulation analysis of the adjustments of the policy for Chinas agricultural water resources. The results of our case study indicate that, in the reality of China, all the adjustments, listed in this paper, of saving water, can have the effect of saving water resources and have a small impact on the national economy, that the policy for the control of the supply of water amount is, at present, the most powerful means to control the demand for water, that, compared with the elasticity of the policy for water prices, that of the policy for the scientific and technological innovation is bigger, and that the policy for the trade mix of the agricultural virtual water can be a supplement to the mix of the policy for the real agricultural water and these two policies can play a role together for adjusting the supply of and the demand for agricultural water resources. Finally, the article has given enlightenment for policy -making.

关 键 词：农业水资源政策 虚拟水贸易 可计算一般均衡模型 政策评估 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济]