财政政策对私人消费非线性效应的存在性及触发条件研究  

On the Existence of Non-linear Effect of Fiscal Policy on Private Consumption and Trigger Conditions

作　　者：项后军[1] 周宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经学院经济与国际贸易学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《财经研究》2011年第9期16-27,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70772114)

摘　　要：文章通过构建财政政策与私人消费关系的理论模型,初步证明了财政政策对私人消费可能存在的非线性效应以及财政政策究竟发挥何种效应是由触发条件内生决定的事实。在此基础上文章运用门限模型,将触发条件量化为门限指示变量,并以1993年1月至2009年11月的月度数据为样本对上述问题进行了实证研究。结果发现:(1)在样本期内,财政支出政策对私人消费总体上表现为凯恩斯效应,与此相对的是税收政策表现为显著的非线性效应,并以税收增长率0.287为临界值,财政政策从凯恩斯区制向非凯恩斯区制转移;(2)我国财政政策非凯恩斯区制与高通胀区制高度吻合,即在经济出现高通胀的情况下,财政政策可能引发非凯恩斯效应;(3)我国财政政策对私人消费的促进作用十分有限,乘数效应并不明显。故政府应对财政政策做出适当的调整,在积极解决当前高通胀问题的同时,确保私人消费有效增长。By establishing a theoretical model of the relationship be- tween fiscal policy and private consumption, this paper initially confirms the possible non-linear effect of fiscal policy on private consumption and the de- termination role of trigger conditions in the effects of fiscal policy. Then it quantifies trigger conditions by threshold model and makes an empirical study based on the monthly data from January 1993 to November 2009. The results are as follows： firstly, during the sample period, the effect of fiscal expenditure policy on private consumption is generally featured by Keynesian effect, and by contrast, the effect of tax policy on private consumption is featured by significant non-linear effect~ besides, at the tax growth rate of 0. 287, fiscal policy transfers from Keynesian regime to non-Keynesian one; secondly, the Keynesian regime of fiscal policy in China is highly consistent with the high-inflation regime, namely the occurrence of non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy under high inflation; thirdly, the positive effect of fis- cal policy on private consumption is rather limited, and the multiplier effect is not significant. Therefore, governments should make an adjustment in fis- cal policy and ensure the effective increase in private consumption with active solution to high inflation.

关 键 词：财政政策 非线性效应 触发条件 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F810.4[经济管理—财政学] F063.2