人因可靠性仿真  

Simulation of human reliability

作　　者：张力[1] 高文宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]南华大学核科学技术学院,衡阳421001

出　　处：《高技术通讯》2011年第8期873-878,共6页Chinese High Technology Letters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金（70873040）资助项目.

摘　　要：为了改进人因可靠性分析中时间接口、误差传播等方面的不足，进行了人因可靠性仿真方法研究。对仿真中的关键问题如仿真模型建立、仿真流程设计、仿真误差分析和仿真规模确定等进行了深入的理论分析并给出了合理的解决方案。并以核电工程中广为应用的THERP＋HCR方法为原型，给出了人因可靠性仿真的实现实例。仿真结果表明，前述理论分析是准确和可靠的，该方法除了能更好地解决时间接口问题及误差传播分析和敏感性分析等问题外，还能够从更多的角度更深刻地研究人的行为特性。The research on simulation of human reliability was performed to improve present human reliability analysis methods＇ deficiencies in time interface, error propagation and others. This paper analyzes the key problems in human reliability simulation such as simulation modeling, simulation algorithm design, random numbers generation, error estimation, and simulation size decision, and gives corresponding rational resolutions. Furthermore, an example of human reliability simulation is presented referring to the widely used THERP ＋ HCR method. The simulation results show that this simulation is more effective in dealing with time interface, error propagation and sensitivity analysis. Moreover, the simulation makes it possible to study human performance from different angles.

关 键 词：人因可靠性分析 仿真 时间接口 误差传播 核电站 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]