信贷激增与经济金融风险——基于新兴市场国家的视角  

Rapid Credit Growth and Economic and Financial Risks: Based on the Perspective of Emerging Economies

作　　者：黄隽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国人民大学学报》2010年第6期40-48,共9页Journal of Renmin University of China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"防范金融风险的中国银行业市场结构设计"(08BJY148);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目"银行业稳定:宏观环境和微观安排"(10XNJ014);中国人民大学经济学院宏观经济论坛阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：近年来,信贷增长过快是新兴市场国家普遍面临的问题。信贷激增引发的信贷膨胀被定义为在某个阶段信贷的极端增长偏离了正常趋势,而这种偏离不被经济的基本面所支持。新兴市场国家信贷的快速扩张主要源于在较低的经济基础下强烈的赶超意愿和动力。信贷激增会导致经济过热、外部失衡和银行货币危机,危及宏观经济和金融业的稳定。就中国而言,信贷刺激政策在促进经济增长的同时,也显现出风险和负面效应,因此,要处理好经济平稳发展、经济结构调整与通货膨胀预期管理之间的关系。Over the past decade,rapid credit growth is common issue in emerging economies.The cred- it booms resulting from rapid credit growth are defined as periods of extreme deviations of credit from its trend,and such deviations are not supported by fundamentals.The rapid credit expansion in emerging markets is mainly due to the strong catching-up desire and motivation on the lower economic basis.Rapid credit growth will lead to economic overheating,external imbalances,currency and banking crisis,and endanger macroeconomic and financial sector stability.According to China＇s condition,policy recommendations of controlling and defusing the risks are put forward.

关 键 词：信贷激增 新兴市场国家 经济金融风险 

分 类 号：F831.2[经济管理—金融学]