中国货币政策中介目标与经济增长  

Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：万兆泉[1] 许统生[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学金融与统计学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第9期14-18,共5页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：货币政策中介目标是货币政策体系中的重要组成部分,合适的货币中介目标对保持国民经济持续稳定增长具有重要意义。采用基于ARDL模型的协整分析方法,对货币中介目标与中国国民经济增长的关系进行了深入研究,发现通货膨胀率对国民收入的影响幅度最大、货币供应量对国民收入的影响次之,而利率对国民收入的影响相对较小。认为在目前条件下,我国应从过于强调货币供应量指标,转向综合利用多种金融变量来指导货币政策的操作,但在将来市场体系完善后,可考虑采用通货膨胀作为货币政策中介目标。Intermediate target of monetary policy is an important part of Monetary policy system. Appropriate intermediate target of monetary is of great significance for steady growth of the national economy. Based on ARDL co -integration, this paper analyzes the relationship between intermediate target of monetary and China＇s national economy growth and found that the inflation has greatest impact on national income, followed by money supply,and interest rates have relatively small impact on national income. This paper argues that in the current circumstances, China should not place too much emphasis on money supply indicator, turning to comprehensive utilization of a variety of financial variables to guide monetary policy operations. After improving the market system in the future, china may consider inflation as the intermediate target of monetary policy.

关 键 词：货币中介目标 经济增长 结构性突变 ARDL 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]