基于SLEUTH模型的上海城市增长预测  

SLEUTH model-based prediction of urban growth of Shanghai

作　　者：朱飞鸽[1] 胡瀚文[1] 沈兴华[1] 李俊祥[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学环境科学系,上海200062 [2]上海市城市化生态过程与生态恢复重点实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2011年第9期2107-2114,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(30770384);教育部科学技术重点项目(106079);华东师范大学"211"生态学重点学科项目资助

摘　　要：基于SLEUTH模型,利用1989—2005年高分辨率土地利用数据,模拟4种土地资源保护情景下,2006—2035年上海的城市增长,以及城市化对城市景观格局的影响。结果表明:在各种情景下,城市土地利用类型的面积均呈增长趋势,增量随着保护等级的提高而逐渐减少;城市增长方式主要是边缘增长,扩散增长和道路影响增长出现在郊区,增长主要发生在西北方向,西南和东南方向次之;城市化显著影响城市景观格局,并存在阶段性;早期阶段城市化导致景观破碎化,斑块密度增加,景观多样性和异质性提高;后期阶段,城市化将导致景观多样性和异质性降低,城市景观趋于均质化,加大农田和绿地景观的保护等级将减缓城市化降低景观多样性和增加均质化的趋势。In this paper, SLEUTH model and the urban land use datasets in 1989-2005 derived from high spatial resolution （2.5 m） color-infrared aerial photos of Shanghai were employed to simulate the urban growth of the City in 2006-2035 under four land resources protection scenarios, as well as the effects of urbanization on the urban landscape pattern. Under the four land resources protection scenarios, the areas of different urban land use types all kept increasing, but the increments decreased with increasing protection degree. The main urban growth type was the edge expansion of existing urban area, followed by the diffusive growth and road-influenced growth in suburban areas. The future urban growth would mainly occur in the northwestern part of Shanghai, and then in the southwestern and southeastern parts. Urbanization would affect the urban landscape pattern markedly. At the early stage of the urbanization, it could induce landscape fragmentation, landscape diversification, and the increase of landscape heterogeneity; while at the late stage, urbanization could decrease the urban landscape diversity and heterogeneity, and result in urban landscape homogenization. To increase the protection degree of agricultural land and urban green space could mitigate the decline of urban landscape diversity and heterogeneity, and hence, avoid the urban landscape homogenization.

关 键 词：SLEUTH模型 城市化 城市增长 城市景观格局 

分 类 号：F299.22[经济管理—国民经济]