新疆口蹄疫发生风险定量评估体系研究  

A Quantitative Risk Assessment System on the Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Xingjiang

作　　者：周新虎[1] 剡根强[1] 王静梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学动物科技学院,石河子832003

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期456-460,共5页Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science)

摘　　要：为了在新疆口蹄疫的防控中制定科学有效地防控策略,本研究通过制定口蹄疫发生风险因素的基本原则,结合新疆特殊的生态环境及口蹄疫传播机制和其流行病学特点,确定口蹄疫发生的风险因素;利用层次分析法确定各风险因素的权重;利用多指标综合评价法计算评估结果;采用回顾性调查方法,对发生过口蹄疫疫情的一养殖场2010年1—12月份口蹄疫发生风险进行定量评估,检测该评估体系的可行性。结果表明:口蹄疫发生风险定量评估体系在一定范围内对口蹄疫的发生风险评估是可行的,该方法通过进一步优化有望为新疆口蹄疫防控决策提供一定参考。The purpose of this paper is to provide control and prevention strategy of foot and mouth disease（FMD）in Xingjiang. In the process, the risk factors were confirmed by establishing basic principle, according to the entironment of Xinjiang and analyzing the transmission mechanism and epidemic characteristic of FMD. An analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors,and an integrated assessment method was applied to evaluate the results of the risk. Besides, a quantitative risk assessment on the outbreak of FMD was put in practice from January to December in 2010 on a farm where FMD broke out. The result showed that FMD Risk assessment method could be used to perform quantitative risk assessment of FMD outbreak,and the improved FMD risk assess system coubld be used to provide control and prevention strategy for Xinjiang.

关 键 词：口蹄疫 风险 定量评估体系 

分 类 号：S855.3[农业科学—临床兽医学]