滞后诊断偏倚对判断艾滋病潜伏期的影响  

Impact of delayed diagnoses bias on the estimation of AIDS incubation

作　　者：刘慧鑫[1,2] 王璐[1] 秦倩倩[1] 丁正伟[1] 汪宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206 [2]北京协和医学院公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2011年第9期892-895,共4页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：基金项目：国家“十一五”科技重大专项（2008ZX10001-003）

摘　　要：目的以经采供血途径感染HIV者为例，探讨滞后诊断的HIV感染者对艾滋病中位潜伏期的影响。方法利用全国HIV／AIDS病例报告网络直报系统中感染途径为采供血的病例信息，将1995年至既往有偿献血员HIV抗体筛查结束期间以采供血途径感染的HIV病例为时间截点1组，1995--2010年所有采供血途径感染HIV病例为时间截点2组；应用乘积极限法计算两时间截点组的艾滋病中位潜伏期，并进行两组间比较。结果时间截点1组（3162例）的艾滋病中位潜伏期为9．62年（SAS程序未给出95％CI），时间截点2组（4478例）艾滋病中位潜伏期为9．83（95％C／：9．73～9．83）年。结论未包括滞后诊断病例的既往有偿献血员艾滋病潜伏期研究存在滞后诊断偏倚，对于中位潜伏期的估算偏短。Objective Using the HIV positive paid blood donors （PBDs） as example, to investigate the impact of the delayed diagnosed HIV/AIDS patients on the calculated median incubation of AIDS. Methods Information was retrospectively collected on HIV/AIDS patients who were infected through paid blood donation. Data was from the national HIV/AIDS case reporting system. The time of diagnosed HIV/AIDS after the screening was defined as delayed diagnoses. All the cases were diagnosed between Jan. 1st 1995 and the end of the screening were classified as group 1, while the cases diagnosed between Jan. 1st 1995 and Dec. 31st 2010 were classified as group 2. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the median AIDS incubation of cases from the two groups. Results from the two groups on their incubation periods were compared. Results From the data of group 1, we noticed that the median AIDS incubation was 9.62 years but the 95%CI were not provided in the results of SAS software. When using the data from group 2, we found that the median AIDS incubation was 9.83 years, with the 95% CI as 9.73 to 9.83 years. Conclusion Our data showed that, if excluding the delayed diagnosed cases, the AIDS incubation periods were shorter and biased.

关 键 词：人免疫缺陷病毒感染者/艾滋病病例 滞后诊断偏倚 潜伏期 既往有偿献血员 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]