应用Fuzzy贴近度对第3代稻纵卷叶螟发生量的定量预测研究  

Application of Fuzzy closeness for quantitative prediction of 3^(rd) generation of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis

作　　者：梁章桉 陈先文[1] 郭雪芬[1] 魏正英[2] 陈观浩 

机构地区：[1]化州市那务农业技术推广站,广东化州525139 [2]化州市宝圩农业技术推广站,广东化州525138 [3]化州市病虫测报站,广东化州525100

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2011年第8期910-912,共3页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2010B020416004)

摘　　要：【目的】建立化州市稻纵卷叶螟发生量动态预测模型,为稻纵卷叶螟防治提供科学依据。【方法】运用Fuzzy贴近度原理,挑选与第3代稻纵卷叶螟发生量相关性好、超前性好的3项前期气象因子建立贴近度预测模型,并结合化州市第3代稻纵卷叶螟的实际发生情况,设定Fuzzy贴近度预测规则。【结果】建立了化州市第3代稻纵卷叶螟发生量的定量预测模型y=2.5587+44.1039R(x0,xi),并计算出预测规则,经对历史资料的回测检验,历史拟合率达92.3%,2009和2010年预测结果与实际一致。【结论】建立的稻纵卷叶螟发生量定量预测模型具有计算简单、工作量小、应用方便、预报准确率高等优点,适宜于基层测报站及生产单位推广应用。[Objective]The present study was conducted to establish a dynamic forecasting model for occurrence of rice leaf roller, and to provide scientific basis for its control. [Method]Three meteorological factors which had a close degree and better correlation with the 3rd generation of rice leaf roller were evaluated using the principle of Fuzzy closeness in combination with the actual conditions of the 3rd generation of rice leaf roller in Huazhou City, the prediction guideline for Fuzzy closeness was set. [Result]The quantitative prediction model equation for 3rd generation of rice leaf roller occurrence in Huazhou City was established as y=2.5587＋44.1039 R（x0, xi）, and the prediction values were calculated. The rate of matching results with historical data reached 92.3%, and the predicted results was coincided with the actual data taken in the years 2009 and 2010 which revealed that the composition and structure of prediction model factors of the 3rd generation of leaf roller population met with the prediction requirements. [Conclusion]The established model was convenient and involved simple calculations and lesser labour, and gave results with high precision rate. It is suitable for popularization and application at primary report stations and may be used in the production units.

关 键 词：稻纵卷叶螟 发生量 Fuzzy贴近度 预测 

分 类 号：S431.11[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]