区域综合干旱随机评价模型及其应用  

Regional Comprehensive Drought Assessment Stochastic Model and Its Application

作　　者：施晔[1,2] 梁忠民 易知之[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第9期1-3,217,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(200901022);江苏高校优势学科建设工程基金资助项目;长江学者和创新团队发展计划基金资助项目(IRT0717)

摘　　要：为准确评价区域干旱特征,基于贝叶斯公式,构建了区域干旱评价指标体系,计算了各评价指标的干旱等级概率,采用最大似然分类原则确定了单个干旱指标的评价结果,并采用改进的TOPSIS方法计算了各指标的权重系数,加权得到区域的干旱等级。以江苏省徐州地区干旱评价为例,将评价结果与实际情况及综合指数法进行对比,结果表明该方法有效、可靠。In order to correctly evaluate regional drought,a stochastic model based on Bayesian theory is proposed.Under Bayesian theory＇s frame,the probability of each classification is calculated for each drought index in index system,and the drought grades are obtained by maximum likelihood classification principle.The weight of each drought index is determined by improved TOPSIS theory and the regional drought grade is finally confirmed.Taking Xuzhou Area for an example,compared with the actual situation and comprehensive index method,the result shows that the stochastic model is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：区域干旱 贝叶斯公式 TOPSIS 综合评价 徐州地区 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]