海河流域1469～2008年旱涝变化趋势及演变特征分析  

Analysis of Drought/Waterlogging Variation Tendency and Evolution Features in Haihe River Basin during 1469～2008 Years

作　　者：卢路[1] 刘家宏[1] 秦大庸[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2011年第9期8-11,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家973计划基金资助项目(2006CB40301);基金委创新研究群体基金资助项目(51021006);国家自然科学基金创新群体研究基金资助项目(40830637);国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2006BAB04A16)

摘　　要：基于对历史时期旱涝灾害的重建及其影响研究,采用1469~2008年的历史资料统计了海河流域旱涝灾害的特征参数,运用数学统计方法建立了历史丰枯指数序列,对流域内旱涝等级的一致性进行了分析,得出流域水旱灾害发生的周期和时期,并运用t检验法、功率谱分析和小波分析等方法进行了定量分析和进一步校核。结果表明,海河流域540年可划分为6个以旱为主和6个以涝为主的阶段,流域旱涝的发生具有连续性,且存在8~12、14~20、35年的显著周期。Based on the study of reconstruction of waterlogging/drought disasters in history and its influence,this paper makes a statistics of characteristic parameter of drought/waterlogging disasters in Haihe River Basin with historical data from 1469 to 2008 years.Mathematical statistical method is used to establish the historical sequence of rainy/low water index and the consistency of waterlogging/drought levels are analyzed in Haihe River Basin.Then the cycle and period of flood/drought are calculated.At the same time,the above results are analyzed quantitatively and verified by using t-test,power spectrum and wavelet analysis.The results show that the 540 years of the Haihe River Basin can be divided into six drought-centered stages and six flood-centered stages;the occurrence of drought/waterlogging is of continuity and has periodicity of 8-12,14-20 and 35 years.

关 键 词：海河流域 旱涝等级 t检验法 功率谱分析 小波分析 演变特征 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]