基于排队论的导弹防御系统的效能分析  

Effectiveness Evaluation of Ballistic Missile Defense System Based on Queuing Theory

作　　者：曹雷[1] 董强[1] 彭伟[1] 余沛毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学指挥自动化学院,江苏南京210007

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报》2011年第4期470-474,共5页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金(BK2010130)

摘　　要：为了分析导弹防御系统的防御效能,基于爱尔兰排队系统相关理论构建了多级防御和协同防御模式下的效能模型,两种模型均考虑了防御的实时性要求和预警发现概率对防御性能的影响。结合实例分析了这两种模型的防御效能与预警系统发现概率、导弹毁伤概率、服务通道等之间的关系,比较了两种模型的优缺点,并探讨了各自的应用时机。实例表明通过合理地配置导弹防御系统,综合考虑导弹的命中概率和预警系统的发现概率来确定联合防御的模式,能够有效地提高导弹防御系统的防御效能。To analyze the defense effectiveness of a missile defense system,the effectiveness models of the multi-level defense system and cooperative defense system based on the Erlang queuing theory are established.Both of these models focus on real-time requirements and the impact of detection probability of early warning system.An example is given to analyze the relationship between detection probability,missile kill probability,service channel,and defense effectiveness.Both the advantages and disadvantages of these models are discussed in detail,and the suitable application situations of each model are proposed.The results show that the defense effectiveness can be improved through such measures as deploying the system properly and determining the united defense model according to the value of missile kill probability and detection probability.

关 键 词：多级防御 协同防御 排队论 防御效能 

分 类 号：TN953[电子电信—信号与信息处理]