不确定性:创新发展的价值与寻求  

Uncertainty: The Research of Creative Development and Its Value

作　　者：陈尤文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中共上海市委党校,上海200233

出　　处：《上海行政学院学报》2011年第5期83-90,共8页The Journal of Shanghai Administration Institute

基　　金：作者主持的上海市哲学社会科学规划基金项目课题"科学发展观与领导思维创新研究"(项目批准号:2009BKS003)阶段性研究成果之一

摘　　要：不确定性,即发展处于不稳定状态中,行为的结果具有不可预知的风险性,表现为无序性、差异性、随机性、模糊性和不可预见性等。不确定性是普遍的现象,复杂的不确定性给发展带来了困难,但也带来了创新的动力与挑战。本文从不确定性在发展实践中的反映,不确定性对创新发展的重要价值,以及在不确定性中进行确定性探寻的基本路径与方法等视角入手,表明不确定性不是阻碍科学前行的障碍,而是创新发展的动力,应该视不确定性为友而不是对抗。发展需要将人们领到安全的确定性地带,探寻确定性不能将不确定性纳入思维定势和成见之中,必须创新发展观念和发展方式。Uncertainty means development is in an unstable state. ＇There are risks of unforeseen in the results of these actions. Their forms of expressions may be disorderliness, difference, random, obscuration, unforeseen and so on. Uncertainty is general phe- nomenon. Due to the complex of uncertainty, the developments face difficulties, and creative power and challenges as well. In the view- points of reflection of uncertainty in the developments, the important value of uncertainty for the developments, and basic ways and methods of certainty research during the uncertainty, this article expresses uncertainty is positive, so we should not put the uncertainty into fixed thought state and preconceived idea as well. Uncertainty is the power of creative development rather than obstruction hindering science forward. Leaders are the guiders who can bring people to the safety area. Creative development concepts and methods are essen- tial for the research of certainty.

关 键 词：创新发展 不确定性价值 确定性寻求 

分 类 号：C933[经济管理—管理学]