病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估--以水库的游憩价值为例  

Environmental valuation in aging dam decision making:a case study of reservoir recreation

作　　者：杨孟[1] 钱新[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2011年第9期1563-1570,共8页China Environmental Science

基　　金：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划(2009BAK56B04)

摘　　要：以滁州市黑洼水库的游憩价值为例，利用两边界二分式条件价值法，探讨了我国病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估．利用收入限制Logit模型，分析支付意愿均值和中值点估计和区间估计对其分布函数右尾变化的灵敏性．结果表明本研究中支付意愿的分布函数没有出现“大尾效应”，在最大投标值处，对分布函数进行简单截断的方法统计效率最高．滁州市公众对黑洼水库游憩功能提升的平均支付意愿为305元／户（95％置信区间265～351元／户）；总价值为3782万元（95％置信区间3296--4355万元）．表明即使是小型病险水库也可能具有极高的环境价值，病险水库管理决策必须考虑环境价值这一重要指标．In order to investigate environmental valuation in aging dam decision making, a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method was used to estimate recreational value of the Heiwa Dam. Using different Logit models taking account of income restriction on willingness-to-pay （WTP）, sensitivity of WTP estimates to the fight tail of its distribution was examined. The WTP distribution in this study did not have an unrealistically fat fight tail. The simple method which truncates WTP distribution at the highest bid was most statistically efficient. Results indicated that households would pay an average of 305 Yuan with 95% confidence interval from 265 to 351 Yuan to improve the recreational function of the Heiwa Dam, and the estimated total recreational value was 3782 × 10^4 Yuan （95% confidence interval： 3296× 10^4 to 4355× 10^4 Yuan）. The case study showed that even small aging dam has high environmental value, and environmental valuation is critical in aging dam decision making.

关 键 词：水库大坝退役 条件价值法 两边界二分式 统计效率 收入限制 

分 类 号：X820.1[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F205[经济管理—国民经济]