中国的刘易斯转折点是否到来——理论辨析与国际经验  

Is the Lewisian Turning Point Approaching in China?——Theoretical Analysis and International Experience

作　　者：汪进[1] 钟笑寒[2] 

机构地区：[1]国泰君安证券股份有限公司 [2]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2011年第5期22-37,219,共16页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20105010118)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：各国农业劳动力占劳动力总量的比重随着其人均GDP增长呈现先加速下降而后减速下降的趋势,分界点就是刘易斯转折点。跨国平行数据的回归结果表明,刘易斯转折点在人均GDP为3000美元至4000美元(购买力平价2000年国际美元)之间出现。中国的人均GDP已经超越了这一水平,但农业劳动力比重远高于该经济发展水平下的世界平均水平,这很可能意味着中国的农业劳动力转移仍有较大潜力。Using World Bank cross-national parallel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewisian turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the proportion of rural labor to the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewisian turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross-national parallel data shows that the Lewisian turning point emerges when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between 3,000 and 4,000 dollars (PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000). GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This strongly implies great potential for rural labor transfer in China.

关 键 词：刘易斯转折点 劳动力转移 跨国平行数据 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]