农产品市场价格短期预测研究进展  

Advances in Research of Short-Term Forecasting Methods of Agricultural Product Price

作　　者：许世卫[1] 李哲敏[1] 李干琼[1] 董晓霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2011年第17期3666-3675,共10页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2009BADA9B01);农业部“948”项目(2011-Z5)、农业部市场司“农业信息预警”专项

摘　　要：论文系统概述了近百年来有关国内外农产品市场价格短期预测在理论、方法、实践应用等方面取得的进展,指出主要研究方法的优缺点,并对农产品市场价格短期预测方法研究的特点进行了总结,对今后研究的发展方向进行了展望。研究认为,随着数理统计学、计量经济学、模糊数学、神经网络等理论的发展及方法的广泛应用,目前在农产品市场价格短期预测领域已形成了众多模型,其中主要定量分析方法可概括为四大类,即计量经济预测法、数理统计预测法、智能分析法和组合模型法。在未来的一段时间内,农产品市场价格短期预测将呈现出以定量分析方法占主导、智能化组合化模型逐渐增多、分位数回归模型引入到农产品市场价格短期预测并形成趋势等发展特征。This paper reviewed the progress in the theories, methods and their application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices at home and abroad. Advantages and disadvantages of the existing research methods were comparatively analyzed and the future research directions were prospected. A conclusion drawn from the research was that the quantitative forecasting method could be divided into econometric forecasting, statistics forecasting, intelligent analysis and combination model as the wide application of mathematical statistics, econometrics, fuzzy mathematics and artificial neural network. In the future, the development of short-term forecasting methods of agricultural product prices will show these characteristics： quantitative analysis will be dominant and large-scale complex of intelligent hybrid model will be increased. Moreover, quantile regression model will be introduced as a new application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices.

关 键 词：农产品市场 市场价格 短期预测 预测方法 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]