建立国际航行船舶卫生风险评估模型的思路和方法  

The ideas and methods of establishing health risk analysis model for ships of international voyage

作　　者：周君野[1] 谭绪良[1] 关淳[1] 杨春江[1] 刘志辉[1] 孟东平[1] 张志强[1] 杨泽[2] 刘洪文[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津出入境检验检疫局,天津300457 [2]珠海出入境检验检疫局,广东珠海519000 [3]辽宁出入境检验检疫局,辽宁大连110013

出　　处：《口岸卫生控制》2011年第4期10-15,共6页Port Health Control

摘　　要：目的通过对天津港2010年所有入境国际航行船舶资料及卫生状况进行分析,综合评估影响船舶卫生状况的风险因素,并建立国际航行船舶卫生风险评估数学模型。方法利用AMOS建立数学模型,应用主成分分析与多元回归方法对资料进行统计分析,最终得到国际航行船舶卫生风险数学模型。结果筛选船员国籍、船舶经营者、来自疾病流行区、月份、船龄等16个危险因素,建立了结构方程模型。结论通过建立影响国际航行船舶卫生风险的数学模型,使入境国际航行船舶卫生风险定量化,指导入境船舶检疫查验工作。Objective Establish health risk evaluation mathematics modeling by analyzing incoming international ships＇ data and health situation at Tianjin port in 2010 and comprehensively evaluating risk factors affecting ship health conditions. Methods Health risk evaluation mathematics modeling for ships of international voyage was established by employing AMOS and carrying out data analysis by conducting principal component analysis and multivariate analysis. Results 16 risk factors such as crews＇ nationalities, ship operator, epidemic prevalence region and month, ship age etc were selected to establish structural equation model. Conclusion Through establishing health risk analysis model for ships of international voyage, ship health risks were quantified to guide ship quarantine inspection work.

关 键 词：卫生 风险分析 船舶 国际航行 

分 类 号：R185.3[医药卫生—流行病学]