河南省复种指数的时空特征及其与粮食产量关系研究  

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Multiple Cropping Index and Relationship between Multiple Cropping Index and Grain Yield in Henan Province

作　　者：张志国[1] 

机构地区：[1]商丘师范学院环境与规划系,河南商丘476000

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2011年第17期3653-3656,共4页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省政府决策研究招标项目(2011B589);河南省教育厅自然科学研究项目(2011B210029)

摘　　要：复种是区域粮食增长的重要途径之一。河南省是我国重要的产粮大省,研究复种指数对河南省粮食生产和粮食安全有现实意义。该研究计算了河南省复种指数和潜力复种指数,分析了其时空特征,同时,利用线性回归方法建立了近30年河南省复种指数和粮食产量之间的函数关系。研究结果表明:(1)近30年来,河南省耕地复种指数和粮食产量总体呈增长趋势,二者之间显著相关,且复种指数是粮食产量变化的原因;(2)河南省再依靠提高复种指数来增加粮食产量的余地不大;(3)现有潜力复种指数计算未考虑人为因素,值偏低。Multiple cropping is an important way to increase grain yield.Henan is an important province in China＇s grain-producing.There are realistic significance for food production and food security.Multiple cropping index and potential multiple cropping index were calculated.Spatial-temporal characteristics of multiple cropping were analyzed.At the same time,function relationship between grain yield and multiple cropping indexes in recent 30 years of Henan province was established by linear regression.The results showed：（1） Both multiple cropping index and grain yield totally had an increasing tendency in recent 30 years.They had significant correlation,and multiple crop indexes was the reason for the variation of the food production;（2） Henan province was hard to rely increasing grain yield on multiple cropping;（3）Existing potential multiple crop index calculation did not consider the human factors,and so value was low.

关 键 词：复种指数 时空特征 相关分析 因果分析 河南省 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] F216