漳河水库流域降雨变化趋势分析  

Analysis of Change Trend in Rainfall in Zhanghe Reservoir Basin

作　　者：赵华安[1] 姚开军[1] 官燕华[1] 陈崇德[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448156

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期7-10,共4页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

摘　　要：采用Mann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法和R/S分析方法对漳河水库流域未来降雨变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:未来一段时间内,漳河水库流域降雨量呈下降趋势;流域未来1月和7月的降雨量变化趋势的随机性成分可能很大,应采取必要对策和措施,以应对可能出现的干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害;粗放式的经济发展方式导致了漳河水库流域生态环境破坏,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,进而对流域降雨量变化产生较大影响.Parameters using Mann-Kendall rank correlation test method and R/S analysis method,future rainfall change trend of Zhanghe Reservoir basin is analyzed.Results show as follows.The next period of time,in Zhanghe Reservoir watershed the rainfall will be decreased.Zhanghe Reservoir watershed in next January and July the rainfall trends in a random component;therefore,we should take necessary measures dealing with possible floods and rainstorms,droughts and other natural disasters.Extensive mode of economic development has led to ecological damage to the environment Zhanghe Reservoir watershed surface conditions make great changes,so as to change the watershed rainfall greatly impact.

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL法 R/S法 降雨量 变化趋势 漳河水库流域 

分 类 号：TV211.11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]