基于现代数学思想对安全生产控制指标分解方法的研究  

Research on decomposition method of control index in safety production based on modern mathematics

作　　者：梅国栋[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100012 [2]北京科技大学,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2011年第8期60-66,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2009JBKY04);国家科技重大专项课题(煤层气与煤炭协调开发模式与技术体系)

摘　　要：随着我国安全生产状况逐年稳定好转,传统的安全生产控制指标层层分解的方法正面临着分解空间日益狭小、指标难于分解的挑战。为增强指标分解方法的理论性和科学性,力求真正意义上反映地方政府在安全生产工作中的实际成效,本文作者以创新方法为突破口,结合现代数学理论中"加权平均预测法"、"弹性系数预测法"等数学思想,对我国安全控制指标分解方法进行了延伸性的创新研究,提出了"五年平均降幅定权重法"和"相对指标反推绝对指标法"两种控制指标分解方案,为安控指标的分解方法提供了新的思路。With the year after year steady improvement of China＇s work safety situation,traditional layer upon layer decomposing methods of control indicators are facing the challenges that the decomposition space is more and more narrow increasingly and the indicators are more and more difficult to decompose and etc.In order to enhance the theoretical and scientific of the indicators＇ decomposition methods,Strive to truly reflect the practical results of work safety in the local government.The author conducted a extended Innovative study on the decomposition method of our China＇s work safety control indicators which by the innovations approaches as a breakthrough and combination with the modern mathematical theories such as ＂Weighted average prediction method＂ and ＂Elastic coefficient forecast method＂ and etc,and proposed two control indicator decomposition proposal——＂five-year average decline weight method＂ and ＂the relative indicator back step absolute indicator method＂,which provided a new idea for the decomposition methods of China＇s work safety control indicators.

关 键 词：安全生产 控制指标 现代数学 分解方法 权重 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]