城市停车换乘设施吸引需求强度研究  

Study on the Attracted Demand Intensity of the Park and Ride Facilities in Metropolis

作　　者：秦焕美[1] 关宏志[1] 龙雪琴[1] 殷焕焕[1] 刘燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2011年第4期654-657,661,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:50978008);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(批准号:2006BAJ18B06)资助

摘　　要：停车换乘需求分析是进行停车换乘规划建设的依据,根据在北京市进行的停车换乘需求调查数据,分析了停车换乘设施吸引需求空间分布特性,并利用核密度估计理论得出了需求密度(强度)分布图,进而基于结构方程模型对停车换乘设施吸引需求强度与影响因素之间的关系进行了探讨,得出目的地交通状况越差、公交服务水平越高、出发地与换乘设施之间的距离越近,吸引换乘需求强度越大.The analysis on the park and ride（PR） demand is the basis for the planning and construction of park and ride facilities.This paper analyzes the characteristics of park and ride demand distribution by the park and ride demand survey data in Beijing.Then the attracted demand density（or intensity） distribution chart was obtained by the kernel density estimation method.Lastly the paper discusses the relation between the attracted demand intensity of the park and ride and the effected factors based on the structural equation modeling theory.The conclusions are that the poorer the traffic situation for the destination,the higher the public traffic service level,the closer the distance from the departing area to the park and ride facility for the travelers,the bigger is the attracted demand intensity.The study results give some references for the demand forecasting of the park and ride in metropolis.

关 键 词：停车换乘 核密度估计 结构方程模型 需求强度 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]