电力市场中的电价预测综述  

A Review of Electricity Price Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets

作　　者：刘达[1] 乔欢欢[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《陕西电力》2011年第8期27-32,41,共7页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70901025)

摘　　要：在竞争性的电力市场中,准确地预测电价对电力市场的参与者有着重要的意义。全面回顾和分析了国内外的电价预测研究成果,并从预测对象、输入变量的选择、预测方法和程序以及研究历史等角度进行了分析,在此基础上比较分析了各种预测方法的优缺点,最后对电价预测研究工作提出了建议和展望。Forecasting energy price with high accuracy in deregulated electricity markets plays a key role for all the participants. The research gives an overall review and analysis on the literatures of electricity price forecasting home and abroad. Analysis on price feature and its influence is paid extra attention. Then the objects to be forecasted, methods and approaches adopted in the modeling procedure, as well as the various selected as input are compared; the merits and defects of different methods are analyzed in detail, some suggestions for electricity price forecasting and its prospect are given at last.

关 键 词：电力市场 电价预测 预测方法 预测模型 综述 

分 类 号：TM731[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]