SPI与K指数在阿勒泰地区应用的对比分析  

Application and Contrast Analysis of SPI and K Index in Altay

作　　者：庄晓翠[1,2] 杨森[1,2] 赵正波[1,2] 张林梅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点试验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放试验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]阿勒泰地区气象局,新疆阿勒泰836500

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2011年第4期9-13,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：兰州干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM200914);新疆气象局项目"阿勒泰地区气候变化与干旱研究"(201014)

摘　　要：干旱是限制新疆阿勒泰地区农牧业生产可持续发展最主要的自然灾害之一,研究适合该区的干旱指标,是进行有效干旱监测的基础。利用阿勒泰地区7个气象台站1961—2009年的月降水量、气温资料,计算SPI和K指数,比较分析了SPI和在该地区应用较好的K指数。结果表明:SPI计算简单,资料容易获取,而且计算结果与K指数有较好的一致性,能够较好地反映该地区干旱状况,特别是SPI可以计算不同时间尺度的指标值,能够满足不同水资源状况分析的要求。对比分析了5种时间尺度的SPI值,发现SPI能较准确地反映该地区的旱涝趋势,尤其是3—6个月时间尺度的SPI值,能较好地反映该地区的干旱发展,12个月尺度对长期连续干旱监测较好。Drought is one of the most important natural disasters that limit the sustainable development of farming and animal husbandry in Altay, and the study of an appropriate drought index is the base to an effective monitoring of drought condition. Using the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2009 that observed in seven meteorological stations of Altay,we counted SPI and K index, compared and analyzed SPI and K index. The results indicated that the calculation method of SPI was simple and the data was easily accessible, and the counting result was consistent with K index. It could also well reflect the drought condition. Especially, SPI could count the index of different time scale, and satisfied the analysis of different water resource condition. We compared SPI of five time scales and found that SPI reflected exactly drought and flood in this area. Especially, SPI of three months and six months could reflect the drought development, and SPI of twelve months was suitable for long term drought monitoring.

关 键 词：标准化降水指标 K指数 时间尺度 干旱 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]