基于EMIMIC模型的灰色经济测度——兼论灰色经济的正负效应及应持观点  

On Gray Economy Measurement based on EMIMIC Model——A View on Positive and Negative Effects of Gray Economy

作　　者：刘国风[1] 王永[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学理工学院,天津300222

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2011年第9期51-57,83,共8页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：2010年度国家社科基金项目(10BTJ011)

摘　　要：本文结合我国的实际国情,通过构建EMIMIC模型测算了我国1979-2009年灰色经济的规模,并对其变化过程及灰色经济与国民经济之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:我国灰色经济规模变化依次呈现急速增长、急速降低和持续稳定增长三个不同阶段,且灰色经济与国民经济不存在简单的正负相关关系。应全面、客观地看待灰色经济的作用及影响,采取措施有效地降低灰色经济规模。In this paper, combining the present situation of China, we calculate a scale of gray economy from 1979 and 2009 by EMIMIC model, and make an empirical analysis on the change process and the relations between gray economy and national economy. It turns out that there are three different stages of gray economy scale change including rapid growth, rapid decrease and continuous and steady growth, and there is not a simple relationship between gray economy and national economy. We should consider the function and effect of gray economy from an overall and objective perspective, and use measures to effectively reduce the gray economy scale.

关 键 词：灰色经济 EMIMIC模型 GDP 

分 类 号：F812.3[经济管理—财政学]