中国农户信贷需求及其影响因素分析——基于Logistic模型的实证研究  

Empirical Research on Influence Factors of Credit Demand of Rural Households in China Based on Logistic Model

作　　者：秦建群[1] 吕忠伟 秦建国[3] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061 [2]中国农业银行,北京100005 [3]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2011年第5期27-33,125,共7页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"大型商业银行服务三农对策研究"(08&ZD023);国家社科基金项目"中国金融解决‘三农’问题的历史经验研究(1949-2009)"(09BJL013);北京师范大学自主科研基金项目"农户分层结构;金融支持与新农村建设"(2009AAP-2)

摘　　要：本文基于来自中国12个省(市)3051户农户家庭的实地调查数据,运用Logistic模型实证研究了农户信贷需求及其影响因素。研究结果表明,样本农户的年龄与信贷需求之间成倒"U"型关系;农户家庭生命周期、受教育程度会在一定程度上影响信贷需求;农户的家庭收入、家庭规模、家庭负担率以及是否购买养老保险对农户的信贷需求有显著的正向影响。另外,农户从事的经济活动类型也会对农户的信贷需求产生影响,以兼业农户为参照,纯农业农户对信贷需求有显著的正向影响,而非农业农户对信贷需求有显著的负向影响。Rural households are not only the principal part of agriculture, but also the main demanders of rural financial market. The interpretation of the characteristics, behaviors and living environments of rural households in China is the foundation of the discussion on rural financial problems. This paper studies the credit demands and behaviors of rural households based on survey data from 3051 rural households in 12 prov- inces, municipalities or autonomous regions and investigates the factors affecting the credit demands of rural households with Logistic model. We conclude that age and credit demand of farmers show a reversed ＂U＂ pat- tern, that the life cycle and education of farmer family can more or less affect the credit demand of farmer, and that the income, size and labor force burden rate of farmer family and endowment insurance adoption have sig- nificantly positive impact on the credit demand of farmers.

关 键 词：农户 信贷需求 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F224