基于情景分析法的矿业城市低碳经济发展评价与分析  

Scenario analysis based on mining cities low-carbon economy development measurement and analysis

作　　者：袁锋[1] 李仲学[1] 曹志国[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2011年第9期30-33,共4页China Mining Magazine

摘　　要：低碳经济已成为全球经济发展的必然趋势。本文以低碳经济发展和可持续发展为目标,对矿业城市低碳经济发展模式进行分析。综合利用情景分析法基本理论和低碳经济理论,首先构建了矿业城市低碳经济发展评价指标体系,进而对未来不同情景模式下的低碳经济指标进行了预测和分析,从理论上丰富了矿业城市低碳经济发展评价理论。最后,以某矿业城市为实例,通过对该矿业城市未来经济发展形势分析,建立未来经济社会的不同发展情景。对各种情景下的低碳经济指标进行预测分析,为该矿业城市未来经济发展提出对策建议。Low carbon economy has become the inevitable trend of global economic development. The thesis targets on the low carbon economic development and sustainable development, analyzes the model of mining cities low carbon economic development by comprehensive use of the basic theories of scenario analysis metbod and low carbon economic theories. The thesis fivstly constructs the evaluation index system of mining cities low carbon economic development, thus predicts and analyzes the index of low carbon economy under different scenario models, theoretically enriches the mining cities low carbon economic development of evaluation theory. Finallyp taking a specific mining city for example, the thesis establishes different mining cities of development in the future economic society in terms of analyzing the future economic growth in the mining cities, and puts forward advice for future economic development by means of predictably analyzing the low carbon economy index under various scenarios.

关 键 词：低碳经济 矿业城市 情景分析法 指标体系 发展模式 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]