锡林郭勒盟草地对气候变化的响应及其空间差异分析  

Analysis on Response of Grasslands to Climate Change and Its Spatial Difference in Xilingol League

作　　者：曹立国[1] 刘普幸[1] 张克新[1] 王洪岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2011年第5期789-794,共6页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961035);甘肃省科技计划基金项目(0803RJZA094);甘肃省教育厅导师项目(0801-11);甘肃省重点学科自然地理学共同资助

摘　　要：基于内蒙古锡林郭勒盟1958-2008年逐月气温、降水资料,利用Miami模型和Thornthwaite模型,结合ArcGIS中的Kriging插值方法,分析该地区51年来草地生产潜力对气候变化的响应,并分别建立气温、降水量与气候生产潜力之间的线性回归模型,预测研究区草地未来的变化趋势。结果表明:51年来,研究区年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,降水呈下降趋势,气候总体趋于暖干化。在气候变化背景下,草地的季节生产潜力呈不同程度的减少趋势,其中水分条件是草地气候生产力的主要限制因素,降水量与草地生产潜力显著相关,相关系数为0.98,达到了0.01的置信度水平。用气温、降水、气候生产潜力在SPSS下建立的回归模型为:Y=169.606+7.053t+1.142r(R=0.978,P<0.01),表明年平均温度每升高/降低1℃,草地的年生产力就会增加/减少7.05 g/m2,年降水量每增加/减少1 mm,草地的年生产力就会增加/减少1.14 g/m2。Changes of the temperature and precipitation in Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia in the recent 51 years and the response of grassland climatic productivity to these changes were analyzed based on the meteorological data observed during the period from 1958 to 2008 using the Miami model,Thornthwaite model,Kriging interpolation and mathematical statistics method.The results revealed that the temperature increased by 2.19 ℃ in recent 51 years,its increase rate was 0.43 ℃/10 a,but precipitation decreased slightly with a decrease rate of 6.35 mm/10 a.All these revealed that climate in Xilingol League trended to be a warming-drying pattern,and the seasonal productivity of grasslands was decreased in varying degrees.As a result,the grassland climatic productivity was inclined to decrease.There was a significant correlation between the grassland climatic productivity and the annual precipitation,and the correlation coefficient was 0.98,which suggested that water was the main factor restricting the grassland climatic productivity.The regression model is Y=169.606＋7.053t＋1.142r（R=0.978,P0.01）,which suggested that the annual grassland climatic productivity will be increased or decreased by 7.05 g/（m2·a） if the mean annual temperature increases or decreases by 1 ℃,and the annual grassland climatic productivity will be increased or decreased by 1.14 g/（m2·a） if the annual precipitation increases or decreases by 1 mm.

关 键 词：草地生产潜力 气候变化 空间差异 Kriging插值法 锡林郭勒 内蒙古 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]