基于模糊均生函数和最优子集回归的飞行事故率预测  

Prediction of Flight Accident Rate Based on Fuzzy Mean Generating Function and Optimal Subset Regression

作　　者：高建国[1] 端木京顺[1] 李闯[1] 赵瑞峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学工程学院装备管理系 [2]93651部队装备部

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第6期43-47,共5页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为有效预防飞行事故的发生,针对飞行事故率具有随机波动性和趋势性的特点,采用模糊均生函数(FMGF)和最优子集回归(OSR)建立飞行事故率预测模型。该方法把FMGF延拓序列作为预测因子加入OSR方程,将FMGF分析和因子筛选相结合作OSR,进而对飞行事故率进行预测。通过对美国空军1988—2004年的飞行事故率进行拟合预测,结果表明:将FMGF模型和OSR模型有机结合,能够有效刻画飞行事故率的随机波动特性,并且其预测结果的相对误差也较小。For the purpose of preventing flight accident effectively,aimed at the characteristics of stochastic fluctuation and tendency of flight accident rate,a prediction model for flight accident rate is established by adopting fuzzy mean generating function and optimal subset regression.The method introduces the continuation serial of fuzzy mean generating function into the regression equation of optimal subset as the forecast factors,and predicts the trend of air force flight accident rate by analyzing the optimal subset regression.The applied prediction on flight accident rate of U.S.air force from 1988 to 2004 shows that the organic combination of fuzzy mean generating function with optimal subset regression can effectively describe the stochastic fluctuation of flight accident rate with a relative small error.

关 键 词：飞行事故率 模糊均生函数(FMGF) 最优子集回归(OSR) 隶属度 双评分准则 预测 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]