基于统计数据的全国火灾形势综合评价与预测  

Comprehensive Evaluation and Prediction of Fire Accidents in China Based on Statistics

作　　者：刘海生[1] 张鑫磊[1] 宋丽霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北科技学院基础部

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第6期54-59,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(10261003);华北科技学院科技基金资助(B09018)

摘　　要：为综合评价我国的火灾形势,掌握火灾发生、发展规律,根据改革开放以来3个不同时间段的火灾统计数据,运用多元统计分析方法,借助统计软件,对火灾数据进行深层次的分析和研究。同时,针对火灾事故的特点,根据灰色理论的原理和特性,建立了火灾事故灰色系统预测模型,预测了2009年我国的火灾发生状况。结果表明:我国的火灾形势从总体上呈现出火灾发生起数上升中趋于平稳,火灾损失和人员伤亡平稳发展中有所降低的趋势。灰色系统理论模型预测结果同实际状况基本吻合,能够对全国的火灾形势进行综合评价,为消防安全管理部门探究火灾规律提供必要的理论支持。In order to make a comprehensive evaluation of China＇s fire situation,and master the rules of fire occurring and developing,a deep research and analysis is made on the fire statistical data occurring in three different periods since opening-up.With the aid of statistical software,the method of multivariate statistical analysis is used.According to the characteristics of fire,a fire accident prediction model is established by applying basic principles and features of grey system theory,and then used to predict the fire situation in 2009.The results show that,on the whole,China＇s fire situation takes on a rise in the numbers of fire accidents firstly,and then maintains smooth and steady;the number of casualty and the loss of fire damage are developing steadily but have a decreasing trend.This prediction obtained by grey system theory is basically consistent with the practical situation,which demonstrates that this model can be used to make a comprehensive evaluation of China＇s whole fire situation,and provide a theoretical basis for fire safety management departments to research the law of fire.

关 键 词：火灾事故 统计数据 主成分 综合评价 灰色系统 预测 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]