中国城镇化与土地集约利用关系的动态计量分析  

DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND LAND INTENSIVE UTILIZATION IN CHINA

作　　者：郑华伟[1] 刘友兆[1] 王希睿[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2011年第9期1029-1034,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(07XJY021);江苏省国土资源科技项目(201003;201026)

摘　　要：在测度城镇化与土地集约利用的基础上,运用动态计量经济模型探讨城镇化与土地集约利用的相互作用。研究结果表明:(1)城镇化与土地集约利用均为一阶单整序列;(2)城镇化与土地集约利用之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到18.98%;(3)城镇化是土地集约利用的Granger原因,而反向关系得不到实证支持;(4)土地集约利用对来自城镇化的冲击响应强烈,城镇化的冲击对土地集约利用的解释水平达到了90%,而城镇化对来自土地集约利用的冲击响应较弱,土地集约利用的冲击对城镇化的解释水平仅为3%。因此,应采取长期而非短期的策略,有序推进城镇化进程,加强土地利用监督管理,不断提高土地资源集约利用水平。Based on measuring the degree of urbanization and land intensive utilization,the paper explored the interactions between urbanization and land intensive utilization by dynamic econometrics.The results showed that both of urbanization and land intensive utilization was integrated of order one.There existed equilibrium relationship between them in long term whereas things were different in short term,and the range of short term equilibrium close to long term equilibrium was 18.98%.Grange causality test showed that urbanization was the Grange cause of land intensive utilization,but the opposite grange causality couldn＇t be proved by the empirical study.The response of land intensive utilization to urbanization impulse was remarkable and the urbanization impulse can explain the change of land intensive utilization to a certain extent of 90%;the response of urbanization to land intensive utilization impulse was weak and the land intensive utilization impulse can explain the change of urbanization to a certain extent of only 3%.Therefore,it was necessary to take long-term measures such as orderly promoting urbanization,strengthening supervision and management for land utilization and constantly improving the level of land intensive utilization.

关 键 词：土地利用 城镇化 协整检验 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]