我国出口汇率弹性与收入弹性估算:1995-2009  

The Estimation of the Elasticity of Export Exchange Rate and the Elasticity of Income of China:1995-2009

作　　者：张名誉[1] 李志军[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《商业研究》2011年第9期142-146,共5页Commercial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目;项目编号:08CJY046

摘　　要：利用1995-2009年我国向前18大贸易伙伴出口的月度数据,采用协整技术计算我国出口的长期汇率弹性和收入弹性,并进一步利用脉冲响应计算出口的中短期汇率弹性,结果显示人民币名义汇率对双边贸易出口影响较为显著,但对总出口影响可能不显著。从影响力比较来看,进口方GDP对我国出口的影响明显超过汇率。Through using monthly bilateral export data from China to its 18 most important trade partners,we employ co-integration techniques to estimate the elasticity of long-term export exchange rate and the elasticity of income,and then apply impulsive response to further calculate the exchange rate elasticity of mid-and short term.The results display that the fluctuation of RMB nominal exchange rate has obvious effect on bilateral export trade,but little impact on Chinese total export.Finally,through the comparison of impact power,the importers′ GDP are more obvious than exchange rate.

关 键 词：汇率弹性 收入弹性 协整 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]