耕地面积与农业经济增长:协整与Granger检验——以安徽省为例  

Cointegration Analysis and Grange Causality Test Between Arable Land Area and Agricultural Growth——A Case Study of Anhui Province

作　　者：胡春阳[1] 鲍步云[1] 刘朝臣[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽科技学院经济管理学院,安徽凤阳233100

出　　处：《安徽科技学院学报》2011年第4期91-97,共7页Journal of Anhui Science and Technology University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2011sk321);安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSK09-10D54)

摘　　要：以安徽省耕地面积及农业经济增长1990—2009年时间序列数据为例，通过单位根检验、协整和Granger因果检验，明确两时间序列的依存和因果关系。研究表明，安徽省耕地面积和农业产值之间存在长期均衡关系，耕地面积是农业产值的原因，而农业产值不是耕地面积的原因，通过加大农业科技投入、构建高产高效的生态集约农业生产体系和推进农业产业化，提高耕地资源的综合产出率至关重要。此外，要确定合理耕地占用量，着力解决当前土地产权制度不完全情况下“征用＋批租”模式的外部性问题。Taking Anhui Province as and Grange causality test to analyze an example, this paper carries out Unit root test, Johansen cointegration test the dependencies between agricultural economic growth and arable land area with the time series from 1990 to 2009. The result shows that there is a long - term dynamic equilibrium relation- ship between arable land area and agricultural output, arable land area is the causality of agricultural output, while agricultural output isn＇ t the causality of arable land area. It is very important for Anhui Province to take measures to improve the comprehensive productivity of arable land. Promoting agricultural industrialization, in- creasing agricultural science and technology input, establishing high yield, efficient and co - intensive ecological agriculture production systems are advised. In addition, cupied and spare no efforts solve the externality issue of incomplete land property rights System nowadays. they should reasonably prescribe the arable land area oc- the ＂Acquisition ＋ Lease＂ Model under the conditions of

关 键 词：耕地面积 农业经济增长 协整分析 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]