极端天气背景下西南特大旱灾风险分析  

Southwest extraordinary drought risk analysis under violent weather background

作　　者：李敏[1] 张瑞清[1] 陈佳飞[1] 商慧莲[1] 周芬芬[1] 商彦蕊[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄050016

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2011年第18期211-212,共2页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40671003)

摘　　要：基于旱灾系统,从致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的脆弱性和承灾体的易损性及由三者影响下的灾情对旱灾风险进行了分析,建立了旱灾风险分析与决策模型,并提出了减轻旱灾风险的主要对策。结果表明:(1)2009年9月至2010年3月西南地区特大旱灾为百年一遇,厄尔尼诺影响下的极端天气是其主要原因。(2)此次巨灾风险影响涉及到社会、经济、生态、环境、资源等方面,并形成链式反应。(3)从应急措施和长远规划两方面制定风险决策,是降低特大旱灾风险的重要途径。Based on the drought system,this thesis analyzed the drought risk from the danger which sends the disaster,the weakness of the pregnant environment,the vulnerability of the objects which received the disaster and from the situation influenced by the three factors.It also proposed the drought risk analysis and the decision model.At last,it proposed the main countermeasures to reduce the drought risk.The result indicated：（1）The southwest extraordinary drought in 2009 from September to March was hundred years meets and the violent weather under the El Nino influence was its primary cause.（2）This great disaster risk influenced involves to aspects of society,economy,ecology,environment,resources,and forms the chain reaction.（3）The important way to reduce the extraordinary drought risk was to formulate the venture decision from the emergency procedures and the long-term plan.

关 键 词：极端天气 特大旱灾 风险分析 决策 西南 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]