再论人民币国际化  

Some Thoughts on Renminbi Internationalization

作　　者：余永定[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院学部 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2011年第5期7-13,3,共7页International Economic Review

摘　　要：当前人民币国际化已进入快车道,中国政府推动人民币国际化是完全正确的,但目前推行的人民币国际化的路线图存在不少问题。在当前形势下,以人民币贸易结算为突破口的国际化难免导致新增美元外汇储备的增加。推行本币计价比推行本币结算更为重要。人民币国际化不能简单地理解为在贸易和金融交易中尽可能多地使用人民币,而忘记资产与货币的币种结构问题。所谓人民币"回流"问题,从中国境外资产负债的币种结构调整的角度看,只是对中国人民币债务的境外持有者提供多高回报的问题。在美元贬值和美国国债不再安全的情况下,国际金融市场用人民币资产置换美元资产的意愿强烈。依靠满足这种意愿人民币国际化固然可以取得进展,但中国必须考虑清楚为此需要付出的代价。总之,人民币国际化必须在明确目的、看清方向、细致规划的前提下,逐步推进。The objectives of RMB internationalization include less need for China to hold US dollar assets so as toa void risking capital losses,the elimination of exchange-rate risks for Chinese firms,greater fundinge fficiency for Chinese financial institutions and the promotion of Shanghai as an international financialc enter.However,the progress in China's RMB internationalization so far has failed to achieve thea bove-mentioned objectives.The RMB settlement of China's imports leads to more rather than lessa ccumulation of foreign exchange reserves.The focus in RMB settlement rather in invoicing and thef ailure in distinguishing between assets and liabilities in pursuing RMB internationalization have led toC hina's holding more dollar-denominated assets and RMB-denominated liabilities,which meets then eeds of international financial market for adjusting the currency structure of assets and liabilities att he expense of China's welfare.The so-called'recycling'of RMBs by allowing non-resident top urchase RMB bonds or launch RMB FDI is simply a matter of providing better returns to non-residenth olders of RMBs.When China needs to reduce its RMB liabilities,what benefits China can get bye ncouraging non-residents to do so is questionable.Anyway,while recognizing the necessity to promoteR MB internationalization,China should keep its original objectives for RMB internationalization inm ind and balance costs and benefits of the internationalization carefully.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 美元外汇储备 人民币结算 人民币计价 人民币“回流” 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]