降雨径流相关模型在丹江口水库洪水预报中的应用研究  

Research on Rainfall-runoff Correlation Model in Application of Short-term Flood Forecast for the Danjiangkou Reservoir

作　　者：喻杉[1] 纪昌明[1] 赵璧奎[1] 黄小锋 董付强[3] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学可再生能源学院,北京102206 [2]中国水电顾问集团国际工程有限公司,北京100101 [3]汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司,湖北丹江口442700

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2011年第9期145-148,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07423-001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40971300);中国博士后科学基金(20100470276);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(10QX43;09MG16;10QG23)

摘　　要：针对丹江口流域已有水文资料及流域气象特点,将该流域划分为12个单元区,建立降雨径流经验相关模型,应用于丹江口水库的短期洪水预报系统,并采用基于可变遗忘因子递推最小二乘算法的校正技术对预报流量过程进行实时校正。计算结果表明,基于降雨径流经验相关模型预报的洪水过程与实测过程基本一致,洪峰数值及峰现时间指标合格率较高。实践证明,模型具有较高的预报精度,可为防汛部门提供较为准确的降雨径流预报方法。On the basis of the existing hydrological data and meteorological characteristics of Danjiangkou watershed, the whole watershed is divided into 12 unit zones and the rainfall-runoff correlation model , applied to the short-term flood forecast system in Danjiangkou reservoir, is established. In addition, the correction technique based on the variable forgetting factor recursive least square algorithm is adopted to correct the flow process of the forecast in real time. The calculation results show that the predicted flood process based on the rainfall-runoff correlation model is basically the same with the actual process. Meanwhile, the pass rate of flood peak value and flood peak occurrence time is preferably high. It is proved that the forecast accuracy of this model is relatively high, demonstrating that the model can provide a more precise rainfall-runoff forecast for flood control departments.

关 键 词：洪水预报 降雨径流相关模型 丹江口水库 短期预报 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]