我国谷子生产波动研究  

Study on Fluctuation of Millet Production in China

作　　者：许俊锋[1] 张永升[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学,河北保定071001

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第24期15100-15103,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：现代农业技术体系建设专项资金项目;河北省科技厅重大专项课题"河北省山区百万亩旱地杂粮技术创新与示范"(08230907Z)

摘　　要：通过采用HP滤波法,对1949-2008年我国谷子产量、面积和单产的长期波动和短期波动进行了测定和分析。结果表明,目前我国谷子生产正处于下降过程,产量提高的可能性较小,谷子生产波动频繁剧烈,易出现大起大落的情况,在实际发展过程中应注重稳定种植面积、降低单产波动以促进我国谷子生产的发展。The long term and short term fluctuation of planting area,yield and output of millet in China during 1949-2008 by HP Filter are measured and analyzed.The results show that the millet production in China is declining now,it is very little probability to enhance the millet production in China,and the fluctuation of millet production in China is unstable.This paper puts forward some advices to maintain the planting areas and reduce the range of yield fluctuation in actual developing process,to promote the development of millet production in China.

关 键 词：谷子 生产波动 HP滤波法 

分 类 号：S515[农业科学—作物学]