渤海湾温带风暴潮数值预报模型  

Numerical Forecast Model of Variable Zone Storm Surge for Bohai Bay

作　　者：李大鸣[1] 徐亚男[1] 白玲[1] 解以扬[2] 吴丹朱[2] 何乃光[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院暨港口与海洋工程教育部重点实验室,天津300072 [2]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2011年第9期840-846,共7页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

摘　　要：为减少港区经济损失,降低环境污染,建立了海洋潮波动力和风应力场联合作用的温带风暴潮数值预报模型,实现了连续、快速达到一定精度要求的运行模式.模型采用大小嵌套模型模式,以多分潮调和分析提供海洋水边界条件,以MM,5风场计算成果形成时空分布风应力场过程,模型主体网格采用ADI差分格式进行显隐交替计算,浅水变动岸边界采用局部深槽、缩小水域的活动边界处理方法.模型预报并验证了渤海湾海域近期3次风暴潮过程,预报的潮位过程、增水过程与实测值进行比较,潮位过程吻合较好;增水过程在峰值处比较接近,其他各处趋势基本一致;表明该模型在渤海湾海域温带风暴潮预报模拟中具有应用价值,可以用来预报该海区的风暴潮过程.To decrease economical losses and environmental pollutions, a numerical model for extratropical storm surge, cogenerated by forces of tide and wind is established, and continuous and fast calculating mode is achieved. Regional nesting method is adopted in this model, open boundary conditions are provided by harmonic analysis, the wind process distributed in time and space is provided by meco-scale models （MM5）. The model adopts alternating direction implicit （ADI） for solving equations with explicit and implicit scheme alternately, and the method of localdeepening and water range reducing is to deal with lateral boundary. Based on those conditions, the latest three storm surge processes are simulated by the above-mentioned numerical model, and good results are achieved with the comparisons between the simulated values and observed data, especially on peak value of water elevation. It is proved that the model is of high value to forecast the storm surge for Bohai Bay and can predict surge height in this area

关 键 词：风暴潮 预报模型 风应力场 调和分析 渤海湾 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV139.2[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]