中国区域煤炭消费影响效应的比较分析——基于面板数据模型的实证经验  

A Comparative Analysis of the Effect of Regional Coal Consumption in China:An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data Model

作　　者：刘满芝[1] 王锐[1] 周梅华[1] 张静[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院(南湖校区),徐州221116

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第9期1641-1649,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：中国软科学基金(编号:2010GXQ5D331);教育部人文社科青年基金(编号:10YJC630150);江苏省2010年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划(编号:CX10B_046R);中国矿业大学社会科学基金(编号:2009W12)

摘　　要：本文在分析经济增长、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源利用效率与煤炭消费关系的基础上,构建了面板数据模型,对它们之间的关系进行了实证分析,并对东、中、西部地区进行了比较分析。实证结果表明:变量间存在长期协整关系,而且各地区间存在一定差异,中部地区经济增长对煤炭消费的影响高于其它地区,东部地区产业结构、能源消费结构、单位GRP能耗水平等因素对煤炭消费的影响大于其它地区;从短期波动看,东部地区各因素波动对煤炭消费量波动的影响要高于其它地区,不过产业结构波动对煤炭消费波动的影响西部要高于东部地区,从偏离长期均衡的调整力度看,中部地区要高于东部和西部地区。因此,国家和各地区在制定经济政策和煤炭政策时,必须正视这一差异,把握煤炭需求与经济增长、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源利用效率的具体关系,促进能源与经济的良性发展。Coal plays a leading role in the structure of energy supply and demand in China.Therefore,unraveling the relationship between economy and energy supply and demand would be beneficial in understanding the relationship between economy and coal so as to guarantee energy security and realize stable development of economy.Based on analysis of the relationship between economic growth,industry structure,energy consumption structure,energy utilization efficiency,and coal consumption,a panel data model was constructed to perform an empirical analysis of the relationship among them.The comparative analysis on the effect of coal consumption among eastern,central and western regions were conducted.The empirical results show that there was a long-term co-integration relationship among economic growth,industry structure,energy consumption structure,energy utilization efficiency,and coal consumption.There was a certain difference among regions.The influence of economic growth on coal consumption in the central region was higher than that in other areas.For eastern,central,and western regions,when GRP changed 1%,coal consumption would change 1.003%,1.006%,1.014% and 0.975%,respectively.The respective influence of industrial structure,energy consumption structure,and unit GRP energy consumption level on coal consumption in the eastern region was greater than that in other areas.Fluctuations of coal consumption in the central region were affected the least by the fluctuation of the industrial structure.In terms of short-term fluctuations,fluctuations of the coal consumption were caused mainly by economic growth,energy consumption structure,and the short-term fluctuation of unit GRP energy consumption level.The effect of fluctuation of each factor on coal consumption in the eastern region was greater than that in other regions,but the effect of industrial structure fluctuation on coal consumption in the western region was greater than that in the eastern region.In terms of adjustments to deviating away from the long-term equilibriu

关 键 词：煤炭消费 影响效应 比较分析 面板数据 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F426.21