水资源约束下的干旱区种植业结构优化分析——以新疆库尔勒市为例  

Planting Structure Optimization in the Arid Area with Constrained Water Resources:A Case Study of Korla,Xinjiang

作　　者：曹雪[1] 阿依吐尔逊.沙木西 金晓斌[1] 周寅康[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第9期1714-1719,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(编号:201011016-08)

摘　　要：近年来,随着新疆社会经济不断发展,大面积土地开发与水资源有限、粮食安全问题与种植业经济利益驱动性之间的矛盾加剧,水资源合理配置及种植业结构优化的重要性日益凸显。本文以新疆库尔勒市为例,根据其水资源开发利用特点,综合考虑经济、生态、粮食安全等因素,结合种植业发展重点,提出四个发展方案,建立水资源优化配置模型,利用数据包络分析方法进行投入产出效率评价。结果表明:高自给率低投资的种植业发展方案,既能满足一定的粮食自给率要求,又不过多增加节水灌溉投资费用,其投入产出效率最高,可视为种植业发展规划的基础方案。根据该方案,2020年种植业总面积应控制在84000hm2左右,粮食、经济作物、果园种植比例为26∶56∶18。从目前情况来讲,应通过增加粮食作物种植面积、发展果园节水灌溉、减少果园大田种植等提高粮食自给率和经济效益,同时节水灌溉改造费不应超过种植业总产值的3%,以免造成投资过剩。In recent years,along with continuing social and economic growth in Xinjiang,increasing contradictions between intensive land exploitation and constrained water resources,food security problems and the interest-oriented planting structure,call for reasonable allocation of water resources and immediate planting structure optimization.Korla,a fast developing city in southern Xinjiang Autonomous Region,western China,is taken as a type example of such contradictions.In 2009,the overall water consumption of the city was up to 560×106 m3,of which the agricultural water accounted for 87%.The total area of cultivation is 87 902hm2,while the area for grain planting is less than 10%,which led to a sharp decline of the self-sufficiency rate of grains to 10% in 2009 in the city.Many studies seem to lack of various scenario selections,which may be less suitable for local resources environment and economic conditions.In this study,a new water-resource allocation model was established based on an integrated consideration of economy,ecology,food security,and water limitation.Four programs of different modeling parameters were put forward and one could be selected by the data envelopment analysis method as the most appropriate for Korla’s current situations and would be the direction for the planning of the planting industry.Results show that the project of keeping a high self-sufficiency rate of grain and less investing in water-saving irrigation has the highest input-output efficiency.Korla should focus on the following approaches to optimizing its planting structure and achieve higher economic profits.The first is to increase the acreage of grain and water-saving irrigated orchard.The second is to reduce the orchard planting regions which use water-wasting irrigation modes.The third thing Korla should pay attention to is that the costs of water-saving transformation should not exceed 3% of the total planting industry GDP.By doing that,the total planting area in 2020 should be controlled within about 84000hm2,with a ratio of

关 键 词：水资源 种植业结构 优化配置模型 数据包络分析 库尔勒 

分 类 号：S344[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]