广东省某市吸毒人群规模的估计研究  

STUDY ON ESTIMATING THE POPULATION SIZE OF DRUG USERS IN A CERTAIN CITY OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE

作　　者：王贝贝[1] 林爱华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计与流行病学系,广州510080

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2011年第18期3640-3642,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：2007年广东省科技厅计划项目(2007B031511010)

摘　　要：[目的]采用乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法估计广东省某市吸毒人群的数量,为该人群健康干预工作提供依据。[方法]对广东省某市社区、美沙酮维持治疗门诊和劳教所的吸毒人员进行调查,获得该人群的基本情况,依据该市8家强制戒毒所的吸毒人员数据,运用乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法估算该市的吸毒人群数量。[结果]该市吸毒人群以青壮年为主,文化程度较低,地区分布广泛,乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法估计的吸毒人员基数分别为49619,(47599～54734)人。[结论]乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法有较好的一致性,估计该市吸毒人数约为50000人,对吸毒人群的基数估计要根据实际需要综合运用各种估计方法。[Objective]To provide an relatively accurate population size for health intervention among drug users in a certain city by applying results from the multiplier method and capture-mark-capture method.[Methods]Investigations were conducted among drug users in community,Methadone maintenance treatment clinic and department of labor correction to obtain the general characteristic of this population.Multiplier method and capture-recapture method were used to estimate the size of drug users with use of data from 8 compulsory rehabilitation centers in this city.[Results]Most of the drug users were young adults,and they were usually poor education,and widely distributed in the city.The results from the Multiplier method and capture-mark-recapture method were 49 619 and（47 599-54 734）.[Conclusion]Consistency was showed between results from the Multiplier and capture-mark-recapture method.The size of drug users in certain city was estimated to be about 50000.Methods should be integrated to get a more accurate size for actual condition.

关 键 词：吸毒者 基数估计 乘数法 捕获-标记-再捕获法 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]